Category Decision making

Word of the year 2016

Nothing to do with the ice caps

It’s that time of the year when various bodies such as the American Dialect Society and Global Language Monitor nominate the word of the year (WOTY).

Not to be outdone, at VoxSapiens we would like to nominate our word of the year.

Our thinking is along the lines of the Oxford English Dictionary’s nomination of post-truth and dictionary.com’s nomination of xenophobia. We see Brexit, Trumpquake and woke, all contenders for WOTY, as key arenas for use of both the OED’s nomination and ours.

But we see the issue as more than post-truth. We see a fundamental change in the world developing.

For that reason, we nominate Read more

Donald Trump ate my hamster

And Freddie Starr beat Max Clifford to win the US Presidency

So the unimaginable did happen. The Donald came from behind and now he is President-elect.

Trump’s unexpected triumph intersects perfectly with the recent spate of false news stories garnering higher positions in search engine results than genuine news stores. I say this because many of the false news stories are related to Trump. Indeed, some people believe that they are major contributors to his triumph, even, perhaps, the “edge” that he needed to pip Hillary to the post.

This disconcerting trend has even evoked comments from the current US president, Barack Obama, who has denounced the spate of misinformation across social media platforms but without getting drawn into the specific cases of stories related to the presidential election. (One might compare this statesmanlike approach to Trump’s cries of “foul” even before the polls were tallied.)

Whilst fake election stories are the current vogue, the fake news phenomenon extends much further into may other realms. For example: Read more

Are polling companies in crisis?

Major wrong call yet again

Once again the polling companies have got it wrong. And not just slightly wrong, but very wrong.

This time they predicted a Hillary Clinton win. Even 24 hours before the polls they predicted that Hillary would win.

Just a few months ago they predicted a “Remain” win in the Brexit poll.

Last year, there performance would deserve an “F” for the UK general elections. None of the 92 polls accurately predicted the 7% lead the Conservatives would actually achieve and a majority predicted a Labour victory.

% gap between Conservative and LabourAll pollsConservative leadsLabour leads
Total923342
017
1321517
222715
31037
4752
511
6321

In 2013, the pollsters were wrong with the British Columbia provincial elections.

Why do the pollsters repeatedly get it so wrong? Why don’t they learn?

Well, Read more

Could the Brexit shock be out-Trumped?

Could The Donald deliver a second surprise?

Very few people really expected the Brexit vote to end as it did. Even the Leave campaigners were preparing speeches to thank their street campaigners when they had to perform an about-turn and make the winning speeches. Even the online petition (now with over 4 million signatures) for another vote was initiated by a Leave campaigner who expected to lose the referendum.

Similarly everybody expects that the US presidential election is Hillary’s to lose. That Donald Trump, considered by many as almost a joke contender, couldn’t win. He couldn’t, could he? Could he?

Well the recent news may suggest that the second unbelievable national poll result may become a reality.

Read more

Heading for Brexit?

Hold on, it may never happen

So on Thursday 23 June 2016 a majority of British voters chose the Brexit option. This unexpected result has caused major ripples across the globe.

The next step is for the UK prime minister to invoke Article 50, following which two years of negotiations take place and then Britain (or, more accurately, the United Kingdom – see the box below) leaves the EU unless there is unanimous agreement amongst the remaining states to extend exit negotiations.

Read more

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