The end of Open Source ?

The GPL debate will run and run

Over the last few days a debate has flared up over the GPL (the GNU General Public License). Specifically, the debate relates to the refusal of DIYThemes to release its WordPress Thesis theme under the GPL.

The details of the debate encapsulate a major nerdfest, with legal and technical nerds crawling out of their boxes and greeting the world. But beyond this, the debate has much wider implications.

In fact, at Vox Sapiens we wonder whether this debate will be seen as the tipping point that identifies the crest of the Open Source wave. We think that, maybe, the strength of the Open Source movement will wane from this moment because Read more

What price a banking license?

Around 50 million pounds

JC Flowers, the Private Equity house based in New York, has agreed to pay GBP50m for a 49% stake in a Joint Venture with Kent Reliance Building Society (KRBS).

Does JC Flowers see KRBS as a major business opportunity? Hardly, because Read more

Still wrong on bankers’ bonuses

What is wrong with a bonus culture in banking?

The European Union parliament will vote next week on new legislation to curb bankers’ bonuses. The rules on bonuses are included within a larger proposal on capital requirements. According to the Financial Times, ‘lawmakers and EU officials welcomed the agreement and said it should help to reduce the “bonus culture” in the banking sector.’

Well here at Vox Sapiens, at risk of repeating ourselves (see Bankers’ bonuses – wrong target) we think the bonus culture should be increased, not reduced. This is because Read more

Has SAP missed a trick?

Sybase may be a costly mistake

So it looks like SAP is going to buy Sybase, database vendor. But SAP is paying a lot of money for the company placed fourth in its main market. The price per share, at USD65 and a 44% premium to the pre-announcement price, hearkens back to the mid-1990’s when Sybase was still considered a serious competitor to Oracle, IBM, Ingres (another decliner), and Microsoft was not taken seriously as an enterprise computing vendor.

Here at Vox Sapiens we are not sure this is the right move for SAP. Firstly, Sybase is probably a poor choice at virtually any price. But there is plenty of commentary available on this elsewhere on the web.

So instead, here at Vox Sapiens we will discuss the company that SAP should have bought. And that company is Read more

Rusty old dumping ground

Await the Chinese backlash

The latest European passenger vehicle emissions standard (“Euro5″) was introduced in September 2009. Since that date, in Europe it has been illegal to sell new vehicles that do not meet this standard. Older models that only met the Euro4 standard can only be exported outside Europe to markets with more lenient standards. Within Europe the cars have little value – they can only be disassembled in order to reuse the components – and this value is therefore below cost.

This situation alone raises the possibility that dominant carmakers in the other markets will already be very suspicious of Euro4-compliant automakers. But it can get worse, much worse. Imagine that Read more

The importance of thorough research

Repeating comments in a different context can be misleading

At Vox Sapiens we are disappointed by a recent FT article which appears to show sloppy research. We have long admired the quality of the research and analysis in the FT compared to many other newspapers. However, today’s article appears to have taken an idea from an old article and repeated it almost verbatim, thereby misleading the reader. We are using this as an example of how it is important to be careful when using the Internet for research.

The article in question relates to Read more

Google breakup? Wrong target again

Consumer Watchdog misses the biggest threat

The Consumer Watchdog April 21 asked the US Department of Justice (DOJ) to launch an antitrust action against Google. In its request it suggested that Google might be broken up.

While there is the potential for Google to develop into something that needs to be broken up, right now there is a candidate that is way higher in priority. And that is Read more

From petrolhead to chiphead

The future of the automotive industry is more than the new powertrain

Powertrain 2020! The EV vision! The lust for lithium! The fuss about fuel cells! The automotive industry is alive with a debate over the replacement of the gasoline powertrain.

This is an extremely important debate, and will have major impacts on the strategic positioning of the OEMs. For example, what would happen if the future is rechargeble batteries and in the future the electricity supply companies give away vehicles in exchange for exclusive recharging contracts? Don’t believe it could happen? Look at the mobile phone handset industry.

But creeping up quietly is another technological shift that could have even more impact Read more

Escher’s Bank

The incredible story of the Icelandic banking crisis

The Icelandic Special Investigation Committee (SIC) yesterday (April 12th, 2010) delivered its report on the collapse of the three main banks in Iceland. It makes shocking reading.

It can be downloaded here.

At Vox Sapiens, our initial vision was of a couple Escher’s masterpieces. Read more

Better risk management for banks

A new approach to punishing offenders and rewarding the best

The recent financial crisis was exacerbated by several failures, one of which was poor risk management by banks. Previous attempts to coerce management into being more responsible have failed. How about this approach? Read more

O Lord, I’ve bought me …

… a chunk of Mercedes-Benz

So Renault-Nissan and Daimler have agreed a cross-shareholding and cooperation on future technology. Here at Vox Sapiens we are not optimistic about this alliance. Read more

Lawyers and the real world again

Why can’t they see the bigger picture?

So Microsoft (presumably on the advice of lawyers) used the DCMA (Digital Millennium Copyright Act) to force Cryptome.org’s hosting provider, Network Solutions, to close down the website and keep a lock on the domain name to prevent the site being relocated. Then a day later the complaint was rescinded, allowing the site to be restored.

This was a bad thing to do? Why?

OK, where should I start? Read more

Forget Tequila, welcome the Ouzo Crisis

How to prepare for the collapse of the euro currency union.

Greece uses the same currency as Germany. But Greek government bonds yield almost four per cent more than German government bonds, an all time record for the eurozone.

This is telling us something; really telling us something. The bond market is pricing in a high possibility of default by the Greek state. Read more

Toy-woe-ta

Looks like a business school case study in the making

Toyota seems to have spent the last few weeks giving PR people a good example of how not to handle a negative story.

Firstly, there were the stories of floor mats preventing the release of the accelerator pedals and the potential for accidents.

Then, two days ago (on January 26, 2010), there is the halt to production in North America and the recall of another couple million vehicles.

But, worst of all, many consumers do not know that the latter recall is a separate problem because Read more

Bankers’ bonuses – wrong target

Unless you’re a shareholder, point your gun elsewhere

During the last few days many of the large Investment Banks have announced staff bonuses. And in many cases these have been at, or near, record levels. This has led to public outcrys.

As a response, some governments have announced special taxes on these bonuses. And the triumverate of governments, central banks, and financial services industry regulators have all railed against the bonuses.

But why are the bonuses so high? Who should be the real target of the outrage? Read more

Really? You don’t say!

Taking your watch and telling you the time

Just a bloglet today – a more substantial post will be arriving soon.

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I subscribe to Get Abstract (registration required) which provides 5-page abstracts of business books, allowing me to keep up with trends without spending my entire life reading books. Usually I find it very useful. But today I received an abstract that included the most banal statement ever. Read more

And next the Renault Pico ??

A cheaper car than the Tata Nano

Renault has announced that it will produce a cheaper vehicle than the Tata Nano, which is currently the world’s cheapest car.

This story from Autonews (registration required) reports that the CEO of Renault and Nissan, Carlos Ghosn, states that an agreement has been signed with Bajaj Auto whereby Read more

The obligations of a debt rating agency

To whom are the ratings agencies legally accountable?

So McClatchy Newspapers has discovered that in late 2007 some analysts at Moody’s Investors Service were “downsized” for expressing concerns about the accuracy of the ratings being applied to some of the CDOs (collateralised debt obligations), especially those comprising MBSes (mortgage backed securities).

The news group alleges that Read more

What electric car tipping point?

Doctor Z, want to borrow my spectacles?

Dr Dieter Zetsche, CEO of Daimler AG (that produces Mercedes-Benz and Smart) is reported in Automotive News to have said of electric cars being on the immediate horizon that “we are at that tipping point now.”

Really? I disagree for several reasons. Read more

Marketing Myopia revisited

What about tobacco?

Recently I was re-reading Theodore Levitt’s epochal Marketing Myopia and considering the basic premise that companies are not defining their markets correctly (by being product-orientated or service-oriented rather than customer-oriented) and therefore not following the market as it migrates to an alternative product or service to fulfil the same underlying desire.

Then it struck me that maybe there is an exception for which a replacement has not been produced, and maybe cannot be produced … Read more

We should expect some mergers to fail

Why should mergers or carve-outs differ from other change programs?

Every report on the state of mergers and acquisitions points out that a proportion of mergers fail to deliver the intended benefits. Similarly, reports on the success of projects convey a similar message – some projects fail. Mergers are amongst the largest and most complex projects that companies must implement, and are not ‘run of the mill’ for most companies, so shouldn’t we expect mergers to fail – at least until we can implement projects successfully? Read more

GM’s intellectual property smokescreen?

“Transferring GM’s jewels to Russia via Opel”

The media report that General Motors was loathe to sell (a full or partial stake in) its European Opel operations to the Magna consortium because it is concerned that this will provide a conduit via which GM’s intellectual property (“IP”) might end up in the hands of GAZ, a competitor to the Chevrolet brand in Russia. Today the media report that GM has agreed to sell to the Magna-led consortium, but that there are conditions attached to the sale. I find this approach somewhat strange, and wonder whether it is a smokescreen. Read more

Here comes the “Nano Tax”

“First car for the second world family, second car for the first world family”

The Tata Nano is likely to change the lives of an immense number of families in the developing world, with the possibility that the Indian car market will increase by 65%, according to Standard and Poor’s Indian arm, CRISIL (source India Times). And much has been written about Ratan Tata’s dream of migrating Indian families from two wheels to four.

But how about the developed world? I believe that it will be disruptive here too – by fundamentally altering the tax applied to private vehicles. Read more

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